Suspicious crude trades before Trump's Iran policy shift under regulatory probe
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a series of "precisely timed" crude oil trades that occurred just before major shifts in President Trump's Iran policy, according to people familiar with the matter. The suspicious timing has raised insider trading concerns.
Focus on two key events
The CFTC investigation focuses on at least two instances of trading volume surges ahead of major announcements over about two weeks:
Event 1 (March 23): About 15 minutes before Trump announced via Truth Social that he would delay strikes on Iran's energy facilities, billions of dollars in unusual crude oil and stock index futures trades occurred. Trump's statement sent crude prices plunging and stocks surging.
Event 2 (April 7): Futures activity increased significantly hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Reports say that less than three hours before the ceasefire announcement, investors suddenly sold 8,600 Brent and WTI futures contracts in an inactive period after market settlement, with a total position value of about $950 million. The news caused crude futures to plunge about 15% at the next open.
Scope and methods
The CFTC is investigating crude oil futures contracts traded on CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. platforms. The regulator has asked both exchanges for data, including "Tag 50" identifiers that can identify the entities behind the trades.
Since WTI crude trades on CME's New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the CFTC can directly request data; but for Brent crude traded in London, any data request must go through the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
Political pressure and developments
Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have urged the CFTC to investigate these unusual trades, questioning whether there has been repeated misuse of material non-public government information. The White House last month also issued an internal memo warning employees not to use sensitive information for trading in financial markets or event-driven betting platforms.
CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said in late March that the agency is monitoring potential violations in crude oil futures trading but declined to comment on specific investigations. CME, ICE and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
