2026 MWC Shanghai Observation: 6G Shifts from 'What to Do' to 'How to Do'; Satellite Enters Large-Scale Networking Cost Reduction Phase
Recently, the 2026 MWC Shanghai opened as scheduled. Unlike last year's atmosphere of intensive 5G-A commercial orders, this year's exhibition hall emphasized pragmatic deduction: when will technology turn into real money. The '6G Industrial Ecosystem Zone' and 'Future Constellation' satellite area, which were set up independently for the first time, were popular, but the industry paid more attention to the path to monetization.
Blue Whale Tech journalists found that in the 6G direction, the three major paths of integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration are no longer controversial. Chip makers have even started pre-research and stockpiling ahead of time. In the satellite internet field, the 'land grab' for orbital and spectrum resources is basically over, with large-scale networking and cost reduction becoming new themes. However, terminal manufacturers and investment institutions generally remain on the sidelines: the former await killer applications, the latter cannot calculate the return cycle. Even international satellite players that have achieved profitability are struggling in the early cultivation of the consumer market.
When the financial accounts of 5G investment have not been fully settled, 6G and satellite internet are collectively entering a transition period of 'clear vision, difficult monetization'. Technology paths are narrowing, but commercial outlets are broadening. Under real investment return constraints, the industry needs more pragmatic answers than 'grand narratives'.
6G technology paths converge, business loop still under exploration
Entering the 6G Industry Ecosystem Zone in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, the five major sections include the Beijing 6G Lab General Area, Communication Enhancement, Integrated Sensing and Communication, Integrated Communication Computing Intelligence, and Space-Terrestrial Integration, clearly demonstrating the core technology vision of 6G. On-site staff said this is the first time MWC Shanghai has set up a dedicated hall for 6G, signaling that 6G has moved from concept discussion to key system verification.
Technicians from the Beijing 6G Lab General Area pointed out that last year people were still debating what 6G would do, but this year the debate has shifted to how to do it and what trade-offs to make. Currently, the three enhancement paths of integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration have formed industry consensus. Key technologies such as terahertz communication and intelligent metasurfaces have also entered prototype verification.
The pace of upstream layout in the industrial chain is accelerating. At the exhibition, Qualcomm demonstrated an end-to-end 6G prototype system; Galaxy Space publicly displayed its self-developed second-generation phased array antenna for direct-to-cell connection for the first time in the 6G zone; vivo showcased its 6G pre-research prototype and technology roadmap. Data shows that Xiaomi focuses on underlying transmission algorithms, OPPO on communication paradigm innovation, while vivo's display direction leans more toward end-to-end system and application implementation, covering MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and core network.
An on-site representative of a domestic chip maker said that the company's internal 6G pre-research team has doubled in size compared to last year. The logic is clear: waiting until the standard is frozen would be too late; technical reserves must be built in advance.
Compared with upstream enthusiasm, terminal manufacturers are more cautious. When journalists asked several mobile phone brands about their 6G terminal plans, most responded they are 'closely monitoring', with few consumer-grade product demonstrations for 6G at the booths. The 6G pre-research director of one of the top five global smartphone makers said in an informal exchange that it is currently difficult to provide a clear roadmap for 6G phone commercialization. The core reason is not a lack of technical capability, but that the terminal side is still evaluating the conversion path of user needs and application scenarios; at the same time, the experience dividend of 5G has not been fully released, and the immersive holographic, multi-sensory, and other scenarios envisioned by 6G are still some distance from the mass consumer market.
The investment community is equally cautious. A TMT-focused early-stage investor visited the 6G zone and observed several demos, saying that the technology evolution direction is impressive, but from an investment perspective, the capital return of 5G is still being digested; the R&D and network deployment costs for 6G are enormous, and the exit cycle and return expectations currently lack sufficient data to support. He admitted that at this stage, he is more inclined to keep tracking and observing, and wait for clearer commercial signals before making a move.
'Future Constellation': structure initially set, profit path yet to be verified
Unlike the atmosphere of the 6G zone focusing on key technology verification, the newly established 'Future Constellation' satellite industry zone presents a different industrial rhythm: the orbital structure is beginning to take shape, and participants have entered a stage of intensive resource and cost management.
Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators such as Spacety, China Telecom Aerospace, and Yuanxin Satellite, as well as international players like Iridium Communications, set up booths. Spacety demonstrated real terminal equipment for low-orbit satellite internet for scenarios such as ocean-going vessels and desert mining areas. China Telecom Aerospace focused on promoting the Tianqi constellation's Internet of Things application cases. Yuanxin Satellite engineers live-streamed a video call test based on the 'Qianfan Constellation'.
A representative of China Telecom Aerospace said on site that the battle for orbital and frequency resources in satellite internet has largely ended, and the current key lies in large-scale deployment and cost control. He revealed that the batch production cost of the company's narrowband communication payloads continues to decline, but also pointed out that the user scale of satellite internet services has not yet reached the break-even point, and government and industry orders will remain the basic revenue support for at least the next few years.
In the process of forming a profitable model, terminal costs are worth noting. Journalists discussed the material costs of satellite communication terminals with antenna and module manufacturers, who generally said that costs are falling rapidly and have the capability to integrate into mainstream phone designs, but most did not disclose specific figures.
A business manager at the Iridium booth said that Iridium has achieved positive cash flow through narrowband voice and low-speed data services, but the traditional market is approaching saturation, and the next growth needs to expand into IoT and emergency communications. Domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in the catch-up phase prioritizing scale, and achieving break-even will take time and user accumulation.
